NFC PICK-Something you may not be aware of

bookie · Jan 17, 2005

Atlanta's 'college' run first offensive philosophy has taken them to the NFC championship game. Can they make it to the Super Bowl?

The answer is no.
Eagles linebackers will shadow Vick all day and frustrate him into mistakes. Eagles defense will crowd the front line and make Vick pass. Not Falcons strength. Vick may be the most exciting player in the league but his passing stinks. Dont believe me check this out.

On the other side, McNabb looks to have adjusted to life without T.O. I believe another week of practice will only make this offense better.

Andy Reid will look like a genius after it is all said and done. He was wildly criticized for resting his best players but football is a long season. This team has recharged their batteries and look hungry. They will not be denied this time and I look for them to go onto the Super Bowl.

Eagles -4.5

jwblue · Jan 17, 2005

Those are good statistics.

IS

NickfromNJ · Jan 17, 2005

Bookie - My thoughts exactly. Eagles -4.5 looks like the play. I see a 27-13 kind of game.

brucesilverman · Jan 17, 2005

The X Factor

It was posted last year that there has never been a team that loses a conference championship game that comes back the following year an win in a championship game.I believe it's now 0-27. Atlanta will win if history again repeats itself.

blueedwards · Jan 17, 2005

bruce silverman said:
It was posted last year that there has never been a team that loses a conference championship game that comes back the following year an win in a championship game.I believe it's now 0-27. Atlanta will win if history again repeats itself.

check your facts bruce:

the bears lost to san fran in the 1984 nfc championship game. we all know what happened in 1985...

brucesilverman · Jan 17, 2005

Thank You Blue Edwards And Stand Corrected

Stand Corrected So When Other Then In 1985 Has It Happened?

blueedwards · Jan 17, 2005

the 1983 niners lost to washington, then they beat the bears in 84

in 1986 the redskins lost to the giants, then they beat the vikings in 87

in 1993 the niners lost to dallas, then they beat dallas in 1994

in 1995 the packers lost to dallas, then they beat carolina in 1996

hows that?

coconutman · Jan 17, 2005

pwned.

bookie · Jan 18, 2005

I was going over the Falcons season....take note how easy their schedule was. I know many cappers put alot of emphasis on schedule strength in college football for good reason and I feel you cannot discount that angle for the Falcons either.

Sep 12 @San Francisco Won 21-19
Sep 19 St. Louis Won 34-17
Sep 26 Arizona Won 6-3
Oct 3 @Carolina Won 27-10
Oct 10 Detroit Lost 10-17
Oct 17 San Diego Won 21-20
Oct 24 @Kansas City Lost 10-56
Oct 31 @Denver Won 41-28
Week 9 BYE
Nov 14 Tampa Bay Won 24-14
Nov 21 @N.Y. Giants Won 14-10
Nov 28 New Orleans Won 24-21
Dec 5 @Tampa Bay Lost 0-27
Dec 12 Oakland Won 35-10
Dec 18 Carolina Won 34-31
Dec 26 @New Orleans Lost 13-26
Jan 2 @ Seattle Lost 26-28
Jan 15 St. Louis Won 47-17
Jan 23 @Philadelphia 3:00pm

mj23 · Jan 18, 2005

Bookie those passing ratings Vick has if i remember correctly your ratings were higher when you were in your prime!! Good point thanks for info!

BigLou+ · Jan 18, 2005

Bruce

No team has won the Super Bowl if they lost at home in the conference championship game the previous season.

Big Lou

hardcorecap · Jan 18, 2005

All stats and streaks are made to be broken. Red Sox proved that. I think the best way is to look at what these teams have done this year, and make a judgement. I think the thouhts of the Eagles frusterating Vick and making him play there game are very probable. Falcons at home win this game. On the road, its a diff story.

sportsbet · Jan 18, 2005

Bookie I see you're coming around to the right side sir!

I feel like Bartyles and James:

"Thanks for your support"

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!!!!!

sb

trench1978 · Jan 18, 2005

Based on the way these two teams have played during the regular season, I think that the Eagles have the edge in this game. If the Falcons didn't win by so many more points and look amazing against the Rams, the Eagles would have been favorites of 6 or 7 points.

Both teams played great this season and in their divisional playoff games.

I think that one X-Factor (being a Philadelphian, I am exposed to this regularly) is the sense of urgency for the Eagles to win this game and advance to the Super Bowl. There are ALWAYS questions being asked about their losses the last 3 years in the Conference championship game. I think that they are tired of the questions and that there is only one way that they can stop them. I think the HFA for the Eagles is what makes them the pick.

The Falcons have dominated at home all year and last week vs. the Rams, but they haven't played the same on the road and they can't be expected to look as impressive this coming week. With the Eagles 3 pro bowlers in their secondary, they will have safeties and LBs freed up to roam the box in an attempt to stop the run.

The Falcons, on the other hand, match up great against the Eagles offense. With their fast LBs (we all knew the Vikings LBs aren't fast last week) and their solid defensive line and pass rush, the Eagles will need to get the WRs going in order to open up the box. It should be a good, competitive game that the Eagles will likely win and cover.

I'm not betting on the Falcons, but I will probably bet on the Eagles.

Scott

ElIguana · Jan 18, 2005

Let's look at box scores for Falcons' 3 meaningful losses this year. (Not counting end-of-season losses vs. NO and Seattle as Atl was resting players.)

Lost 17-10 at home to another dome team, Detroit. Got behind 10-7 in 2nd quarter, 17-7 in 3rd quarter.

Lost 56-10 @ KC. Got behind 14-3 in 1st quarter.

Lost 27-0 @ TB. Got behind 7-0 in 1st quarter.

I didn't follow the Falcons closely all year or see many of their games, but it appears that in all 3 games they lost, they got behind relatively early and (I'm guessing) had to rely on their 30th-ranked pass offense to try and come from behind.

Both away losses were on grass fields.

If Philly can jump ahead early, it might be all over for the Falcons. Then again, anything can happen.

Also, last year I remember Philly having limited running game and McNabb basically hobbling on the field with a bum leg. Both problems seem to be remedied.

Just some things to ponder. Haven't made a play yet, but Philly -4.5 looks like the side right now. GL

sportsbet · Jan 18, 2005

Also, last year I remember Philly having limited running game and McNabb basically hobbling on the field with a bum leg

No Westbrook last year and McNabb had fractured ribs. He could barely put the ball in the air.

sb

Publius · Jan 18, 2005

Is it that Vick is a bad passer or that his wide receivers are bad? I think if you gave Vick a wide receiver the likes of Owens or Moss those numbers would improve.

To illustrate:

Donovan McNabb in 2003: 275/478; 3216 yards; 57.5% completion; 6.7 yards/attempt; 16 TDs; 11 INTs; 59 long; 79.6 QB Rating

Donovan McNabb in 2004: 300/469; 3875 yards; 64.0% completion; 8.3 yards/attempt; 31 TDs; 8 INTs; 80 long; 104.7 QB Rating

sportsbet · Jan 18, 2005

I'll agree he (Vick) doesn't have the best wideouts on the field to throw to. The Eagles have had below average wide receivers for the last 4 years and they have managed to overcome. I would say this group of wide receivers is much farther along than the group in Atlanta. Keep in mind also the Eagles defense does very, very well against mobile QB's. In fact look at the last 3 QB's to beat them in the NFC Championship Games:

St. Louis = Kurt Warner
Tampa Bay = Brad Johnson
Carolina = Jake Delhomme

Mobile QB's they are not.

Look at how poorly Culpepper played against the Eagles last week...and he had Randy Moss to throw to. Vick doesn't have anyone close to Moss to throw to. The birds just need to man up and take care of tackling Dunn and Duckett and they will win this game regardless of Vick.

I think they will contain them all...but then again I'm an Eagles fan so of course I'm going to think that.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

sb

P.S. Also keep in mind we are a pass heavy football team this year. So put all of our offensive weapons up against the 22nd ranked pass defense and I think we will have a major advantage through the air. All we need is an average (not great) day from Westbrook and Levens on the ground and I think we can score going down the field on these guys. They did a good job containing the Rams O but the Rams O is a shell of its former self. They scored 20 points against our 3rd stringers. We will see....

bookie · Jan 18, 2005

There is no disputing Michael Vick has a tremendous amount of talent and although I said his passing stinks, I think the reason is more the Falcons one dimensional offense.

As another poster pointed out, if this team falls behind it will be a long afternoon.
They are simply not capable of coming from behind.

maverick2112 · Jan 19, 2005

bruce silverman said:
It was posted last year that there has never been a team that loses a conference championship game that comes back the following year an win in a championship game.I believe it's now 0-27. Atlanta will win if history again repeats itself.

That stats bogus............off the top of my head I can think of

1994 sf beat Dallas..........1995 Dallas beat Green Bay.......1996 GB beat Carolina

Thats twice and it has probably happened before when the team that lost the championship game went of to win the championship game the next yr